2026 Global Aluminium Industry Strategic Report: “Sekondale mitengo” Pakati pa Zolepheretsa Kupereka ndi Kufuna Kusintha kwa Mphamvu

Chief Analyst: Eco (Gulu la Senior Commodity Strategy Group)

Phunziro: Kusanthula Madalaivala Apangidwe ndi Njira Zakale za 2026 Aluminium Price Volatility

Chidule cha akuluakulu: Kubwereza Aluminiyamu kuchokera “Cyclical Commodity” ku “Strategic Resource”

Kusakhazikika kwakukulu kwamitengo ya aluminiyamu koyambirira 2026 zimachokera ku kusintha kwakukulu kwa zinthu zachitsulo. Aluminiyamu yasintha kuchoka pakuwoneka ngati yomanga mochulukira kukhala a “Green Energy Metal.” Pakali pano msika uli mu a “kusalinganika kwa zida” gawo lapakati pa kutha kwa mphamvu zomwe zidachitika kale ndi kuphulika kwa kufunikira kwa mphamvu zatsopano. M'malo otsika kwambiri, ngakhale kusintha kwakung'ono pamlingo wofunikira woperekera kungayambitse kusinthasintha kwamitengo.

Ine. Supply Side: The “Chokhazikika Chokhazikika” ya Global Production Mapu

Mu 2026, padziko lonse aluminiyamu kusowa kwamphamvu komwe kumawonedwa pazaka khumi zapitazi. Deta yotsatirayi ikuwonetsa kutopa kwazinthu:

Tebulo 1: 2026 Magawo Opanga Padziko Lonse – Mkhalidwe Wantchito & Ngozi Coefficients

Kusanthula Mwakuya: Monga China idasinthira ku a “mpikisano wamasheya” (ziro-chiwerengero) chimango, Kukula kwapadziko lonse kumadalira pafupifupi Southeast Asia. Komabe, Green energy zomangamanga ku SE Asia zimatenga zaka kuti zimangidwe, kulephera kuthetsa kusiyana komwe kunasiyidwa ndi kutsekedwa kwazitsulo zosungunulira malasha kumadzulo. Kupereka ndi moyenera pa a “mbali ya lumo.”

II. Demand Side: The “Synergy” ya Injini Zitatu Zokulirapo

2026 zimasonyeza kukonzanso kwathunthu kwa zofuna. Kuwonjezeka kwa kufunikira m'magawo omwe akutuluka kumene kwathetseratu kuchepa kwa malo achikhalidwe.

Tebulo 2: 2026 Kuwonongeka kwa Aluminium Demand & Kumverera kwa Mtengo

Kusanthula Mwakuya: The “Aluminium-for-Copper” logic ndiyovuta kwambiri. Ndi mitengo yamkuwa yomwe ili pamwamba pa $11,000/t mkati 2026 chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa mbali ya mgodi, Mtengo wa aluminiyumu mu zingwe za UHV ndi ma windings amagalimoto ndiwokongola kwambiri. Zitsanzo zathu zikuyerekeza kuti m'malo uwu udzawonjezera 850,000 metric tons kuti agwiritse ntchito aluminium padziko lonse chaka chino.

III. Mtengo & M'mphepete: Green Premiums Kusinthanso Mitengo Mphamvu

Mu 2026 dongosolo mitengo, “Mpweya” chakhala chinthu chofunikira kwambiri chamtengo wapatali kuposa alumina.

Tebulo 3: Kuyerekeza kwa Mitengo Yopangira Aluminiyamu ndi Gwero la Mphamvu (2026 Kum'mawa.)

Kusanthula Mwakuya: The 2026 kusinthasintha kwamtengo kumayendetsedwa kwambiri ndi “Kusokonekera kwa kayendedwe ka malonda chifukwa cha mtengo wa kaboni.” Monga njira ya EU ya Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBA) ikulowa mu gawo lake la malipoti azachuma, aluminiyamu ya carbon low akutsekeredwa m'makontrakitala anthawi yayitali ku Europe, kupitilirabe kufinya ndalama pamsika wamalo.

Iv. Sewero la Zachuma: Inventory ngati a “Poda Keg”

Kumayambiriro 2026, zowoneka padziko lonse lapansi (LME+SHFE+COMEX) zili ku pansi 12 peresenti zazaka khumi zapitazi.

• Low Inventory Mmene: Pamene masheya akutsika pansi pa masabata atatu akuwoneka kuti amamwa, msika umataya buffer. Kugunda kulikonse kwa smelter kapena kuzimitsa magetsi “mantha chophimba” ndi ogulitsa zazifupi.

• Cross-Asset Arbitrage: Capital mu 2026 nthawi zambiri imazungulira pakati “Aluminiyamu Wautali / Mkuwa Waufupi” ndi “Aluminiyamu Aatali / Zinc Yaifupi” masewera, kupangitsa kusinthasintha kwa msika wamapepala kukhala kopitilira muyeso kuposa zofunikira zakuthupi.

V. Mapeto & Njira Yogwirira Ntchito

1. Price Ceiling/Floor: Takonzanso 2026 Mtundu wa aluminiyamu wa SHFE mpaka 20,500 - 26,500 CNY/t ndi mtundu wa LME mpaka $2,750 - $3,600/t.

2. Core Inflection Points:

   • Q1-Q2: Policy chimbudzi gawo; kuyan'anila kuopsa kwa zovuta zapambuyo potsatira kusintha kwa msonkho wa dzuwa.

   • Q3-Q4: Zenera la kuchepa kwa mphamvu; penyani kuchepetsa kupanga kwanyengo ku China komanso kukwera kwa mphamvu zakunja.

3. Upangiri Wakampani:

   • Kwa Opanga: Hedge 30%-50% za malo akutsogolo pamwamba 24,000 CNY/t.

   • Kwa Opanga: Kusiya “munthawi yake” kugula. Chifukwa cha kuchepa kwapangidwe, kumanga njira nkhokwe pa 22,000 Miyezo ya CNY ndikuyika patsogolo chitetezo “Green Aluminium” magwero ochepetsa kuopsa kwa msonkho wa kaboni.